Public Opinion Polling

Voters Overwhelmingly Say Global Warming Is Real, Support Taking Action, And Will Reward Members Who Vote To Reduce Carbon Emissions

The Mellman Group, Inc. & Public Opinion Strategies

June 3, 2008

Download a copy of the poll (PDF)

Voter support for taking action to reduce emissions of gases like carbon dioxide that cause global warming is overwhelming, unwavering, and has increased over the last decade. Large majorities of American voters believe global warming is real, is caused by human activity, and represents a serious threat. Voters are nearly unanimous in saying that it is important to take action on global warming "now." Voters want Congress to act and will respond quite favorably toward individual Members who
vote to reduce global warming pollution by 70% by the year 2050.

Findings:

1. Voters are Nearly Unanimous in Demanding Action on Global Warming
   
   
2. Action Now is Seen as a Vitally Important Response to a Serious Threat
   
   
3. Voters Believe Global Warming is Caused by Humans and Happening Now
   
   
4. Voters Want Members to Reduce the Pollution Causing Global Warming
   
   
5. The Strongest Messages Appeal to Stewardship, the Cost of Delay, American Technological Know-How and Economic Benefits
   
   

1. Voters are Nearly Unanimous in Demanding Action on Global Warming

Americans are demanding action on global warming. Our just completed survey shows that a huge 82% supermajority of voters want the U.S. to reduce its emissions of gases like carbon dioxide that cause global warming. What's more, support for action is quite intense as an overwhelming 65% not only favor U.S. action, but do so “strongly” (17% not so strongly). A mere 10% remnant are opposed (5% undecided, 2% don't know).

Demands for action are not confined to any one region or party. Eighty-six percent (86%) of Northeasterners, 80% in the South, 79% in the Midwest, and 88% in the West all favor action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Strong majorities across party hold the same view (90% of Democrats, 79% of independents, and 75% of Republicans).

Further evidence of the public’s desire for bold efforts in this arena comes from the fact that fully 89%—almost everyone—deems U.S. action on global warming as important (58% say it is "very important").

2. Action Now is Seen as a Vitally Important Response to a Serious Threat

Demands for action arise from the perception that that global warming already constitutes a serious threat—a position endorsed by 77%, with almost 4-in-10 (39%) seeing a "very serious" threat. Just 20% believe the threat posed by global warming is either “not too serious,” or “not serious at all.” Based on Mellman Group tracking of this question, recognition of the serious threat posed by global warming has increased a net of 11 points over the last decade.

Today, the percentage of voters who classify the threat of global warming as “serious” is quite similar across the country, with 80% of those in the Northeast, 76% in the South, 76% in the Midwest, and 80% in the West all agreeing that the threat of global warming is serious. Eighty-nine percent (89%) of Democrats, 81% of independents, and 62% of Republicans all endorse that view.

3. Voters Believe Global Warming is Caused by Humans and Happening Now

A public consensus has emerged around the reality of global warming. Eighty-three percent (83%) of American voters believe global warming is either happening now or will happen in the future. Almost two-thirds (65%) say global warming is already occurring, while an additional 18% believe it will happen in the future. Just 9% of voters think global warming will not happen. A large majority (60%) of voters also believe global warming results mainly from human activity, compared to just 29% who believe global warming is mainly the result of natural causes (11% don’t know).

4. Voters Want Members to Reduce the Pollution Causing Global Warming

Voting to require factories and power plants to reduce their global warming pollution by 70% by the year 2050 is a significant image booster for individual Members of Congress. All told, 64% of voters say they would feel more favorably toward their own Member of Congress if they supported such a bill, compared to only 12% who would feel less favorably about their representative if they voted “yes” (24% say it would not make a difference).

Voting to reduce global warming pollution would generate good will for Members from voters across the political spectrum, with 76% of Democrats, 61% of independents and 51% of Republicans all saying they would feel more favorably toward their Member for supporting this legislation. The same response is evident in every corner of the country, with 69% of voters in the Northeast saying they would feel more favorably, 62% in the Midwest, 62% in the South, and 65% in the West. In addition, 73% believe passing such legislation would constitute an important accomplishment by Congress, while just 21% do not.

5. The Strongest Messages Appeal to Stewardship, the Cost of Delay, American Technological Know-How and Economic Benefits

There are, of course, lots of ways to describe a piece of legislation like this. We find over and over again that people, whether in their roles as voters or consumers, care much more about end benefits than about process or the mechanisms by which those results are to be achieved. So it is with this legislation too, as the most effective way to describe it is

“This proposal reduces the carbon pollution that causes global warming, while using free market incentives to protect American jobs and international sanctions to make sure other countries participate. It’s the same type of approach that worked successfully to reduce acid rain.”

When described in this way, supporters of the bill outnumber opponents by 75% to 18%. Republicans, Democrats, and independents all express overwhelming support for the legislation by impressive margins (Democrats: 79% favor, 13% oppose; independents: 77% favor, 18% oppose; Republicans: 68% favor, 22% oppose).

This analysis represents the findings of a national survey of 1000 likely 2008 general election voters. Interviews were conducted
by telephone May 30 to June 2, 2008. To insure an unbiased sample, random-digit-dialing techniques were used and respondents
screened for being likely voters. The margin of error for this survey is +/-3.1% at the 95% level of confidence. The margin of
error is higher for subgroups.